What a shitty year for movies! And for life, really! But that hasn’t stopped me from taking a moment to entertain the vapidness of the Academy Awards. Below are my predictions for the major categories. The bolded nominees are what I think will win, and the italicized nominees are what I think should win.
127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)
The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini)
Comment: I am pretty sure I will go to my grave not understanding what is so goddamn great about The Social Network. I haven’t seen Toy Story 3, but I know I’d prefer any of the other nominees to take this one.
Another Year (Mike Leigh)
The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy)
Inception (Christopher Nolan)
The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko)
The King’s Speech (David Seidler)
Comment: I haven’t actually seen Another Year, but I am pretty sure it is better than the rest of these nominees. I find it downright shocking that Inception snuck into this category.
Achievement in Directing
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Comment: I could be wrong on this one, but I think Hooper will sneak in. He pulled off an upset at the DGAs which is a very good indicator of who will win. If it’s Fincher, so be it. As long as David O. Russell doesn’t get it.
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Comment: I really hope this is what happens! I thought The Fighter was a very very bad film, and I thought Melissa Leo was downright terrible in it. Hopefully her bizarrely tacky, self-financed campaign really did ruin her chances as some people are claiming. Plus, pretty much everyone loves Hailee Steinfeld. I have not seen Animal Kingdom, unfortunately. I have a sneaking suspicion that Jacki Weaver’s name would be italicized if I had. I must say, I don’t think I’ve ever been rooting against someone for the Oscar harder than I’m rooting against Melissa Leo. And I started a facebook group called Stop Sandy! last year.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Comment: Boy oh boy did I hate Christian Bale in The Fighter. It pains me that his win seems unstoppable. At least Wahlberg didn’t even get nominated. But yeah, give it to ANY of these guys (haven’t seen The Town, full disclosure) instead of him, world where justice exists. And just look at John Hawkes! He’s been around forever, and he was great!
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Comment: I’ll go ahead and go with the flow and say that Firth should win. This does kind of remind me of Forest Whitaker and Helen Mirren’s wins in 2007, where no one could really argue that either of them was undeserving, but there was still more interesting stuff out there. Aside from Jesse Eisenberg, I think you could make a case that any of the other nominees deserve it over Firth. And really, if Gosling had gotten a nomination, I couldn’t italicize his name hard enough.
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Comment: Oh, NatPort. Few things really make my blood boil more than the Academy Award for Best Actress. From Gwyneth Paltrow to Sandra Bullock, the Academy loves to get this one wrong. This year, however, I am just numb to it. My two favorite performances in this category (Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams) have 0.00 chance, and my two least favorites (Natalie Portman and Annette Bening) are the frontrunner and dark horse. Whatever, Academy. Maybe you guys can find a way to give it to Jennifer Aniston next year.
Best Motion Picture of the Year
The Kids are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Comment: I have seen nine of these movies! The only one I missed was Toy Story 3. Has there ever been a more lackluster group of ten movies that are supposedly the best movies of an entire year? I don’t think so! I could go through and list the faults in all of them, but really, who cares at this point? If The King’s Speech really does pull it off and beat The Social Network, then I will be happy. But the same kind of happy I was when The Hurt Locker pulled it off and beat Avatar. There were definitely other movies nominated that I liked a lot more (A Serious Man, Precious, Inglourious Basterds). I think Winter’s Bone and True Grit (and maybe even 127 Hours) are the best movies in this category. The rest kind of falls into that “meh” category. Except The Fighter, which I think is a downright terrible movie. I think we all should collectively take a big smoke break for this category out of protest.
OK, back to Libya, Wisconsin and Planned Parenthood, everyone!